England, France or Portugal...who will win Euros?

A punishment shootout was each that stood betwixt England and European Championship glory successful 2021.

Having endured a achy conclusion by Italy successful nan last astatine Wembley Stadium, it was difficult not to wonderment if nan Three Lions had conscionable thrown distant their champion opportunity of awesome tourney success.

Perhaps not though.

According to Opta's pre-tournament projections for Euro 2024, nan model of triumph remains very overmuch unfastened for Gareth Southgate's broadside this summer…

It's uncommon for England to caput to a awesome world tourney arsenic outright favourites, but that is precisely nan business this clip according to Opta's prediction model.

Southgate's broadside beryllium apical of nan battalion of projected winners, pinch a 19.9% chance of going connected to assistance nan trophy successful Germany.

While nan news will nary uncertainty beryllium warmly welcomed by many, you're astir apt now wondering really precisely we've arrived astatine that outcome… and it's a adjacent question.

To execute a much well-rounded image of who will spell connected to triumph nan tournament, Opta's prediction exemplary estimates nan probability of each lucifer result - win, tie aliases nonaccomplishment - by utilizing betting marketplace likelihood and our ain squad rankings.

The likelihood and rankings are based connected humanities and caller squad performances, while nan exemplary past considers force spot and nan trouble of their way to nan last by utilizing lucifer result probabilities, taking into relationship nan creation of nan groups and seedings into nan knockout stages.

While nan Opta predictor puts England successful first position, it is France - nan squad who knocked them retired of nan 2022 World Cup - who are basking connected their heels astatine nan apical extremity of nan charts.

With a 19.1% chance for Didier Deschamps' broadside to triumph Euro 2024, there’s a morganatic consciousness of a 'big two' gathering successful nan final.

In fact, nan exemplary estimates that some teams person almost a one-in-two chance of making nan semi-finals, pinch England astatine 48.2% and France astatine 48.1% respectively, to beryllium among nan last four.

Beyond them, hosts Germany are nan squad who information retired nan apical 3 successful position of projected champions.

Julian Nagelsmann's broadside person a 12.4% chance of being victorious connected location soil, and are nan past of nan 3 sides pinch a amended than 10% likelihood of lifting nan trophy.

As for those who look nan surest bets to make immoderate sound successful nan knockout stages, England, France, Germany, Spain, and Portugal are nan 5 teams fixed a 50% aliases amended chance of reaching astatine slightest nan quarter-finals.

Elsewhere from a British perspective, nan outlook for Scotland isn't rather arsenic optimistic.

Steve Clarke's men will person it each to do to unafraid qualification successful Group A, which looks primed to beryllium 1 of astir evenly-matched groups successful nan tourney overall.

According to nan predictor, Scotland person a 58.9% chance of reaching nan past 16, whether that's finishing successful nan apical 2 aliases arsenic 1 of nan champion third-placed sides.

The large problem for them is that, on pinch Group A favourites Germany, some Switzerland (61%) and Hungary (59.3%) are very likewise placed to make it to nan knockout stages too.

The title will beryllium fierce for nan Tartan Army, and things will beryllium tricky from nan disconnected arsenic their necktie pinch hosts Germany gets nan title nether measurement connected 14 June.