Hundred financial projections 'overly optimistic'

Financial projections fixed to imaginable investors successful The Hundred "seem overly optimistic", according to an independent sports finance expert.

The England and Wales Cricket Board (ECB) has begun nan process of trading stakes successful nan 8 franchises.

Information sent to willing parties was published connected X, formerly Twitter, by Indian Premier League (IPL) laminitis Lalit Modi.

One striking item was a predicted emergence of world TV authorities gross from £2.1m this twelvemonth to £34.8m successful 2032, which Modi said "made small sense".

And finance master Dr Dan Plumley told BBC Sport: "There is maturation imaginable successful The Hundred (and English cricket much generally) and backstage equity finance could beryllium a existent affirmative for nan sport.

"But these projections, peculiarly from 2029 onwards, should travel pinch a monolithic statement of be aware astatine nan coming moment."

The ECB is not disputing nan validity of nan accusation published by Modi, but has declined to comment.

The governing assemblage has provided disclaimers successful its position to investors, saying: "No representation, warranty, assurance aliases undertaking is fixed arsenic to nan accomplishment aliases reasonableness of immoderate early projections."

In nan leaked slides, sponsorship is projected to emergence from £5.7m this twelvemonth to £32.6m successful 2032, which Modi called "far-fetched" but Plumley believes is possible.

A home TV woody pinch Sky has been agreed up to 2028 and nan ECB said income will emergence from £37.8m this twelvemonth to £54.3m adjacent twelvemonth and successful each of nan pursuing 3 years. For nan adjacent broadcast cycle, from 2029 to 2032, nan ECB is projecting an yearly income of £85m, which Modi said is "plausible".

The world authorities projection grows twelvemonth connected twelvemonth to 2032, pinch nan ECB predicting a emergence of almost £14m betwixt 2028 and 2029 alone. By 2032, nan ECB is projecting it will beryllium much than 16 times what it is now.

Plumley, based astatine Sheffield Hallam University, added: "I work together that home maturation is plausible, but nan world authorities predictions look for illustration a large leap, particularly fixed it is only nan Premier League successful shot that has seen authorities surge abroad.

"Most sports still get their main broadcast money from home TV deals."

Any maturation successful world authorities would look to hinge connected India and nan United States. However, India's antheral players do not presently play successful The Hundred, lessening its entreaty there. The US has launched its ain Major League Cricket, which tin overlap pinch The Hundred and has 3 of its six teams associated to IPL franchises.

Time differences besides play a portion successful trading a cricket convention successful nan UK to India aliases nan US.

"The IPL is still nan biggest franchise convention successful world cricket and Indian players only being capable to play location is different facet that makes it tricky for The Hundred," said Plumley.

"That convention has phenomenal valuations for its franchises and is still nan benchmark. It has been built up complete 16 years of beardown maturation successful a beardown market.

"Geography besides plays a part. Even if you tin make much authorities fees from India and nan US, nan clip quality is simply a facet successful position of erstwhile nan games are played successful nan UK."

Writing connected X erstwhile he published immoderate of nan ECB's projections connected Wednesday, Modi said nan figures are "disconnected from reality".

In a further station connected Thursday, Modi clarified he had antecedently made a "billion dollar" connection to acquisition nan tourney and move it into a T20 competition.

"My interest now is that they are trying to lure existent IPL owners into this non-starter convention and building a hype astir it that has nary justification aliases guarantees connected numbers," he added.

The ECB is trading a 49% liking successful each of nan 8 teams, pinch nan different 51% past fixed to nan hosts of those teams, who tin opt to support nan stake, waste each aliases portion of it.

In July, nan ECB revealed it had contacted owners of immoderate NFL teams, arsenic good arsenic each proprietor successful nan IPL and its women’s equivalent, nan Women’s Premier League.

Earlier this month, Glamorgan main executive Dan Cherry confirmed Wrexham Football Club owners Ryan Reynolds and Rob McElhenny had held talks complete investing successful Welsh Fire.