The country did a complete 180 on a once-divisive issue starting 20 years ago

Zachary B. Wolf, CNN

(CNN) — It’s difficult to judge today, erstwhile nan immense mostly of Americans support it, but conscionable 20 years agone nan rumor of same-sex matrimony divided nan state and drove elector turnout.

The immense mostly of Americans opposed same-sex matrimony connected May 17, 2004, erstwhile nan first same-sex couples took their vows aft a tribunal determination successful Massachusetts.

The state’s Republican politician astatine nan time, Mitt Romney, planned to invoke an archaic 1913 rule successful an effort to barroom same-sex couples from walking from different states to get marriages successful Massachusetts.

Then-President George W. Bush, a Republican moving for reelection, gave an reside from nan White House that twelvemonth actively pushing to amend nan US Constitution to “protect” marriage, which he described arsenic “the astir basal institution of civilization.”

There was verifiable backlash to matrimony equality successful November 2004, erstwhile voters successful 11 states – ranging from reliably reddish Utah to reliably bluish Oregon – codified successful their constitutions that matrimony should beryllium betwixt a man and a woman.

The matrimony amendment approved successful Ohio by an overwhelming mostly whitethorn person helped sway that pivotal authorities into Bush’s file arsenic he retained nan White House. The effort to reason same-sex matrimony surely didn’t wounded him successful nan state. Without Ohio, Bush would person mislaid to then-Sen. John Kerry, nan Massachusetts Democrat who opposed same-sex marriages taking spot successful his ain state.

The 2015 Supreme Court case, Obergefell v. Hodges, by which a divided 5-4 tribunal would yet assistance a correct to same-sex marriage, sprang up arsenic a consequence of this Ohio amendment.

In CNN exit polls for nan statesmanlike predetermination successful 2004, conscionable a 4th of each American voters that twelvemonth said they supported matrimony authorities for same-sex couples. A larger proportion, 35%, supported giving same-sex couples nan expertise to participate into civilian unions. And 37% opposed ineligible nickname of same-sex unions.

Barack Obama notably opposed same-sex matrimony erstwhile he ran for president arsenic a Democrat successful nan 2008 predetermination and, arsenic nationalist sentiment was quickly shifting, changed his tune successful 2012 to support same-sex unions.

In 8 years, nan US went from nan winning campaigner (Bush successful 2004) exploiting guidance to same-sex matrimony to triumph reelection, to nan winning campaigner (Obama successful 2012) changing his position to support matrimony equality earlier winning reelection.

Now, it’s Congress protecting same-sex matrimony from nan Supreme Court

A decade later, successful 2022, nan personification Obama hit successful 2012, now-Sen. Romney, voted successful favour of protecting same-sex unions successful nan arena nan US Supreme Court decided to portion distant nan nationalist correct to wed that it granted successful 2015.

The tribunal coming is overmuch much blimpish than it was successful 2015 aft 2 justices who supported same-sex matrimony rights, Justices Anthony Kennedy and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, were replaced pinch Justices Brett Kavanaugh and Amy Coney Barrett, respectively.

Two existent blimpish justices, Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, still publically grouse astir nan Obergefell decision, but it’s not clear if an opportunity to overturn nan determination will coming itself aliases if nan blimpish justices who weren’t connected nan tribunal successful 2015 would support removing nan correct to same-sex matrimony successful nan aforesaid measurement they endorsed removing a correct to abortion.

Romney does not now support same-sex marriages, but he made clear erstwhile he voted to protect them from nan Supreme Court that he does respect group who person entered into them:

“While I judge successful accepted marriage,” Romney said successful a statement, “Obergefell is and has been nan rule of nan onshore upon which LGBTQ individuals person relied. This authorities provides certainty to galore LGBTQ Americans, and it signals that Congress—and I—esteem and emotion each of our chap Americans equally.”

The Respect for Marriage Act that Romney supported does not guarantee a nationalist correct to same-sex matrimony if nan Supreme Court changes course, but it does require each authorities to grant marriages conducted legally successful different states.

If nan Supreme Court overturned Obergefell, astir states still person laws and law amendments that prohibition same-sex marriage, according to an study by Stateline.

‘Stunning’ reversal

The yearly American Values study conducted by PRRI successful 2023 recovered a beardown mostly of Americans – much than two-thirds – now support same-sex unions, but nan support varies. In states that protect same-sex matrimony sloppy of Obergefell, support is complete 70%. Support falls to 64% successful states wherever same-sex matrimony would extremity without Obergefell.

I talked to Alex Lundry, a Republican pollster and longtime protagonist of same-sex marriage, astir really he views this 20-year pivot successful nationalist opinion.

“It’s stunning successful its reversal,” Lundry said, adding, “in my opinion, it’s nan astir important and important displacement successful nationalist sentiment of nan modern polling era.”

20% of Gen Z identifies arsenic LGBTQ

Lundry pointed to a bid of information points to explicate nan overwhelming displacement successful nationalist opinion:

► First, much group place arsenic LGBTQ. He pointed to information from Gallup, which saw nan information of nan organization who place arsenic LGBTQ much than double from 3.5% successful 2012, erstwhile nan statement first started asking group astir their intersexual orientation, to 7.2% 2022, nan past twelvemonth for which it has data.

► More importantly, maybe, is that almost 20% of Gen Z Americans, those calved betwixt 1997 and 2004, place arsenic LGBTQ, pinch astir of them identifying arsenic bisexual.

► As a result, much group cognize and attraction astir personification who is gay. That inclination was already underway backmost successful 2004, erstwhile Bush’s vice president, Dick Cheney, 1 of whose daughters is gay, openly disagreed pinch nan push for an anti-same-sex matrimony law amendment. Today location is acold much practice of cheery outlooks successful nan media and successful government, wherever nan statement Out for America, which tracks representation, recovered nan number of openly LGBTQ lawmakers roseate from little than 500 successful 2017 to astir 1,200 successful 2023.

► Underlying each of that is that nan number of same-sex couples has much than doubled from little than 600,000 successful 2008 to much than 1.2 cardinal successful 2021, astir 710,000 of which are married, according to Census Bureau data.

Warnings were unfounded

There is besides grounds that warnings astir same-sex matrimony someway endangering “traditional marriage” simply ne'er materialized.

A caller study by researchers for nan RAND Corporation to measure 2 decades of same-sex matrimony successful nan US argues matrimony rates really accrued among opposite-sex couples arsenic same-sex couples were granted nan expertise to wed successful definite states. Physical wellness besides improved successful those states for same-sex couples, according to nan study.

Another societal shift

Abortion authorities are different societal rumor politicians dream to usage to move nan coming election. A cardinal quality betwixt support for same-sex matrimony and support for abortion rights, according to Lundry, is that support for abortion authorities has remained affirmative for decades, successful opposition to same-sex marriage, which saw a complete turnaround.

The only different rumor wherever he based on location has been specified a pivot is connected legalizing marijuana, support for which has gone from astir a 3rd successful 2002 to 70% successful 2023, according to Gallup.

Not astatine each coincidentally, President Joe Biden has moved successful this predetermination twelvemonth to reclassify cannabis from a Schedule I supplier to a Schedule III drug, acknowledging location are morganatic uses for it and making nan authorities position it arsenic a constituent pinch a little consequence for abuse.

Meanwhile, nan ever-evolving conflict complete LGBTQ authorities continues. An rumor driving authorities legislatures coming is transgender rights, peculiarly regarding children and gender-affirming care.

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